WTF Indiana?
2010, 2011, and 2012 are big years in Indiana.
In 2010 we have many state legislature and some state senate seats up for grabs, as well as various congressional districts. Most incumbents in the state are fairly safe. Despite the "tea parties" and any other "populist" movements most people are not as divisive or angry as the extremes would make them seem.
So, Mike Pence is stepping down because his wife is gravely ill. I think we can all understand and respect that. You figure political leaders from the NE part of the state would seize on the opportunity. Instead, the (R) successor-apparent is Todd Rokita, the current (R) Secretary of State who is fairly loved by both sides of the aisle due to his anti-gerrymandering stance and redistricting campaign. This impacts 2012.
2010 just opened up widely for the state's national senate seat. Surprisingly, Bayh is stepping down, opening a void the Republicans are anxious to fill. However, their top contender is Dan Coats, who is starting to be despised locally because of his lobbying and public desire to retire out of state. The Dems have to get 4500 signatures to get SOMEONE on the ballot ASAP. Without an evil (D) boogieman to run against, the state Republican establishment has no-one to promote. But there is no-one from the (D) sideline who has been groomed and is ready to go to run for Senate at this point. Maybe Joe Kernan could come out of retirement?
2011 may be the last "odd year" municipal elections in Indiana. I believe this is the first year that some new anti-corruption laws take hold, meaning that people cannot hold civil jobs and also serve as an elected official. So no more policemen and firemen (and women) can run for office. This essentially guts the Indianapolis City-County council and likely many other local boards/groups. Also, the Indianapolis mayoral election occurs, which could be interesting. The current mayor isn't a bad guy, but has been described ranging from "buffoon" to "poorly spoken." However, there isn't the necessary public outcry to ouster him, not like what happened to Bart Peterson in 2007 when the public needed to take out their anger over property taxes and crime on someone.
So far Melina Kennedy is the strongest (D) contender for mayor, but she may lose based on two or three things. One, she's seen as a political insider and insider of the Peterson administration, which was combative with police and responsible for a rise in crime. That isn't the truth, but that is the perception on the street, regardless of how many plea bargains and early releases were concocted by the city prosecutor and other state agencies. Two, she's seen as a political insider, and the current incumbent, although he's quickly ascended to be a political insider, is perceived as an outsider. It's a battle cry that resonates with many of the people. The third is that the last time most of the local public saw Melina Kennedy is someone that lost the city prosecutor election, so she may be seen as a "loser" by locals.
Although Mayor Ballard may be seen as a buffoon by many, he's been exceedingly lucky. He's played the political magic to declare his budget as balanced (implying other budgets weren't balanced, but that's a fallacy of its own.) When the city's Capital Improvement Board found itself in a financial crisis he ignored the problem and let other people solve it. Although his lack of leadership is noted, the perception is that he was in office when the problem was solved, ergo he solved it (although local politicos from both side know otherwise.) The State cleaned up its property tax mess, which happened on his watch (again perception.) And the overall crime rate has gone down (although many feel that different types of crime have shifted.)
To win Indianapolis mayor, a (D) must focus on rising property crime trends, inaction of the city on abandoned homes, and the return of the city to outsourcing strategies that failed in the past, like the management/maintenance of parks by 3rd parties. Going after the "quality of life" specter could be perilous, because the city has made strides in some areas (pot hole filling) while failing in others (quality of parks.)
2012 may not be the year the world ends, but Mitch Daniel's two-term limit as governor is up. He's positioned as a VP or Presidential contender in 2012. With Todd Rokita busy in the US House, there isn't a clear (R) succession plan for the state's highest office. The current Lt. Governor, Becky Skillman may run, but I do not believe she's popular enough or wants the job.
One rumor floated is that Bayh's retirement is so that he can return and be the governor of Indiana again. Although many (D) faithful may like that idea, I see it as unlikely at best.
So once again the Chinese curse of "may you live in interesting times" comes to Indiana, wrecking havoc with the leaders of both political parties locally.
